If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But here’s the simple truth.
The data doesn’t point to a crash. It points to slow, continued growth.
And sure, it’s going to vary by local area. Some markets will see prices rise more than others. And some may even see small, short-term declines. But the big picture is: home prices are expected to rise nationally, not fall, over the next 5 years.
The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts
Each quarter, Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, gathers insights from over 100 leading housing market experts.
The latest report shows a clear trend — experts agree that home prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029.
Here’s how to interpret the data:
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Every bar in the graph represents growth, not decline.
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The pace of appreciation just varies from year to year.
Even when forecasts are divided into three groups — average, optimistic, and pessimistic — the story stays the same:
Notice how even the most pessimistic forecasters say we’ll see prices rise by almost 5% over the next few years.
- Overall, prices are expected to rise about 15% from now through the end of 2029.
- The optimists say we’ll beat that and see a roughly 26% increase.
- And even the pessimists anticipate prices will go up by 5% during that period.
What sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash, or even a decline, over the next 5 years.
How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market
The forecasts call for 2–3.5% price increases per year through 2029.
To put that in perspective:
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The 25-year average for home appreciation is around 4–5% annually
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During 2020–2022, prices jumped 15–20% in some areas
So, while the growth ahead may look slower, it’s actually more sustainable and balanced. The market is simply normalizing after an unprecedented boom.
Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash
A lot of the chatter about home prices today is based on that rapid rise and the old saying that what goes up, must come down. But historically, that’s not really true. Home prices almost always rise.
And the main reason we’re not heading for a repeat of 2008 is simple: supply and demand.
Even though affordability challenges have made it harder for some people to buy over the past few years, there still aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants one. And that ongoing shortage is keeping upward pressure on prices nationally.
That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.
And just in case it’s the economy that’s got you worried, remember this. Over the past 50 years, there have been plenty of economic events that have impacted the market. And one thing that’s consistently been true throughout time is the housing market always recovers. And we’re coming through that turn right now and going into a recovery.
Bottom Line
If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to look at the data – not the headlines.
The question isn’t if home prices will rise, it’s by how much.
Let’s connect so you know what’s happening in our local market and what these forecasts mean for your next move.